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Although Polybius clearly underlines the limits of resorting to a higher Tychè in order to explain historical events, his work has been said to include references to both a Tychè connected with Nemesis, and a providential Tychè. With careful attention to the lexicon and to the modalization of statements, we intend to address the question in a novel way, by examining the different focalizations in the narration, in three different contexts : first, when Polybius adopts the most common point of view about Τύχη, and specifies he is doing so (τις) ; secondly, when he dramatizes history, only to better educate ; and, lastly, when he builds a demonstration for his reader, and paints a broad picture of what is now usually simply termed “the march of history”. In such a rational rereading of the past, political evolution (anacyclosis) finds its explanation not in external determinism but in both natural (as in biology) and physical (unbalanced forces) laws, with, however, the moderating influence of moral responsibility applied to Politics.