11

After 2020 was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, a drop in demand and very low inflation, 2021 saw a recovery that was accompanied by a sharp rebound in inflation. Energy prices have soared, and many commodities have also seen their prices rise due to significant pressure on supplies. Core inflation is still subdued in the euro zone for the time being, but it is a concern in the UK and especially in the US, where large stimulus packages and labour shortages are adding to the pressure. The downward turn in most commodity prices since the spring or autumn of 2021 is expected to contribute negatively to inflation during 2022. To assess the extent of this impact, we estimated the sensitivity of the consumption deflator to the price of imported commodities. In particular, we measured the differential impact on inflation in 2022 of a return of the price of oil to 65 euros and of its maintenance at 80 euros.