78

In order to deflect the constant pressure surrounding current events, actors in international relations must condition themselves to prospective thinking. However, the word prospective can take on multiple meanings. Through methodology, Hugues de Jouvenel has drawn the line between the field of forecasting and prospective. Prospective analysis examines the phenomena of discontinuity and breaking points, rather than venturing into extrapolation games. To accomplish this, it is important to build a vision of today’s world through long-term dynamics and to abandon our outdated conceptions of the past. Actors must also be encouraged to develop a project articulating around a vision of a desirable future.