Population Aging and Public Expenditures for Healthcare and Elder Care
Bogaert, Henri
Population Aging and Public Expenditures for Healthcare and Elder Care - 2003.
61
The aim of this paper is to present projections of public expenditures on health and long-term care for the elderly in view of aging populations undertaken by the Working Group on Aging of the European Economic Policy Committee and presented to the ECOFIN Council in 2001. These projections cover almost all fifteen EU member states and make initial estimates of expenditures for the first half of the current century (2000–2050). These projections were produced using a common methodology, a common demographic projection, and commonly agreed macroeconomic assumptions. Projections of health and long-term care expenditure were run separately in order to analyze the implications of aging for the two different components of expenditures. In brief, the projections reveal that the impact of aging on public finances from increased public expenditures on health and long-term care is likely to be substantial during the first half of the current century. These projections are to be understood as reflecting the impact of future demographic changes on overall levels of health and long-term care expenditures, with one way of interpreting the projections being to treat them as a representation of what expenditure levels would be today if the demographic composition of future years were available. As such, these numbers are subject to both upside and downside risks. Upside risks stem from the fact that key non-demographic drivers of health and long-term care expenditures are not explicitly modeled in the projections. Moreover, assumptions for the development of expenditures per head are mostly lower than those that would be predicted from long-term historical trends. Downside risks stem from the fact that the relationship between age and health status and thus age-related and healthcare needs is likely to change over time.
Population Aging and Public Expenditures for Healthcare and Elder Care - 2003.
61
The aim of this paper is to present projections of public expenditures on health and long-term care for the elderly in view of aging populations undertaken by the Working Group on Aging of the European Economic Policy Committee and presented to the ECOFIN Council in 2001. These projections cover almost all fifteen EU member states and make initial estimates of expenditures for the first half of the current century (2000–2050). These projections were produced using a common methodology, a common demographic projection, and commonly agreed macroeconomic assumptions. Projections of health and long-term care expenditure were run separately in order to analyze the implications of aging for the two different components of expenditures. In brief, the projections reveal that the impact of aging on public finances from increased public expenditures on health and long-term care is likely to be substantial during the first half of the current century. These projections are to be understood as reflecting the impact of future demographic changes on overall levels of health and long-term care expenditures, with one way of interpreting the projections being to treat them as a representation of what expenditure levels would be today if the demographic composition of future years were available. As such, these numbers are subject to both upside and downside risks. Upside risks stem from the fact that key non-demographic drivers of health and long-term care expenditures are not explicitly modeled in the projections. Moreover, assumptions for the development of expenditures per head are mostly lower than those that would be predicted from long-term historical trends. Downside risks stem from the fact that the relationship between age and health status and thus age-related and healthcare needs is likely to change over time.
Réseaux sociaux