On an important historical conjecture by Philippe Mongin: A reassessment of Maurice Allais’ contribution to the theory of decision under risk (notice n° 546458)
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| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20250121114115.0 |
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| Language code of text/sound track or separate title | fre |
| 042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE | |
| Authentication code | dc |
| 100 10 - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Munier, Bertrand |
| Relator term | author |
| 245 00 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | On an important historical conjecture by Philippe Mongin: A reassessment of Maurice Allais’ contribution to the theory of decision under risk |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. | |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. | 2023.<br/> |
| 500 ## - GENERAL NOTE | |
| General note | 19 |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | When revisiting the sources of modern risk theory, Philippe Mongin [2019] chose to reexamine Allais’s early writings in light of the discussions held at the Paris 1952 International Conference “Fondements et Applications de la Théorie du Risque en Économétrie” (labeled “Économétrie”). He conjectured that Allais’ endeavor was in fact to establish, not only a counterexample to expected utility theory, but indeed a normative theory of decision under risk, based on a concept of rationality clearly departing from standard theory. This paper reviews the conjecture and Allais’ lines of thought in risk theory and argues that several other arguments can be found to support Mongin’s conjecture. Interestingly, these arguments not only allow to launch a bridge between Maurice Allais’ and Herbert Simon’s worlds, but they also call for a rebalancing of the credit too exclusively given to Tversky and Kahneman 1992’s celebrated article for the elaboration of modern decision theory under risk. While the extension of the model to the uncertainty case is undoubtedly to be credited to the latter authors, it appears that a series of Allais’ writings should be credited for the genesis of the modern theory under risk properly defined, for the seminal ideas, but also for the main innovations. Special mention is to be made of a “Mertonian” development independently worked out by John Quiggin and Maurice Allais himself in the 80s. JEL Codes: A12, B21, B31, C7, D81, D84. |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Herbert A. Simon |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Allais’ paradox |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Paris 1952 conference |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Philippe Mongin |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | risk theory |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | rationality |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | positive and normative theory |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Maurice Allais |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | decision theory |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Herbert A. Simon |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Allais’ paradox |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Paris 1952 conference |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Philippe Mongin |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | risk theory |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | rationality |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | positive and normative theory |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Maurice Allais |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | decision theory |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman |
| 786 0# - DATA SOURCE ENTRY | |
| Note | Revue économique | 73 | 6 | 2023-01-11 | p. 921-941 | 0035-2764 |
| 856 41 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="https://shs.cairn.info/journal-revue-economique-2022-6-page-921?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080">https://shs.cairn.info/journal-revue-economique-2022-6-page-921?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080</a> |
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