Forecasting the Future Number of Dependents: a Multifactorial Approach with a Probit Model (notice n° 698509)
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| 000 -LEADER | |
|---|---|
| fixed length control field | 01484cam a2200157 4500500 |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20250121212611.0 |
| 041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE | |
| Language code of text/sound track or separate title | fre |
| 042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE | |
| Authentication code | dc |
| 100 10 - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Genna, Kevin |
| Relator term | author |
| 245 00 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Forecasting the Future Number of Dependents: a Multifactorial Approach with a Probit Model |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. | |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. | 2024.<br/> |
| 500 ## - GENERAL NOTE | |
| General note | 31 |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | In recent years, France has experienced a major demographic shock as the baby-boom generation has entered old age. This ageing of the population brings with it new challenges, including the loss of autonomy. In this article, we propose a new approach for estimating the progression of dependency based on the estimation of a Probit model using Share survey data. We then use these results to project the number of dependents in France in 2030. Our results show that there will be nearly 3 million dependents in France at that time. The key feature of our approach is that it makes it possible to ascertain the future profile of dependents with a high degree of accuracy. We demonstrate that 50% of future dependents will have incomes of less than €25,000 a year, preventing them from choosing an EHPAD-type facility, whose average annual cost is estimated at €26,000, unless they are helped out. JEL classification: C35, I18, J14. |
| 786 0# - DATA SOURCE ENTRY | |
| Note | Revue d'économie financière | o 152 | 4 | 2024-02-09 | p. 27-36 | 0987-3368 |
| 856 41 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="https://shs.cairn.info/journal-revue-d-economie-financiere-2023-4-page-27?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080">https://shs.cairn.info/journal-revue-d-economie-financiere-2023-4-page-27?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080</a> |
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