Modélisation stochastique et robuste de l’atténuation et de l’adaptation dans un système énergétique régional (notice n° 770360)
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| fixed length control field | 03576cam a2200325 4500500 |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20250123105308.0 |
| 041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE | |
| Language code of text/sound track or separate title | fre |
| 042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE | |
| Authentication code | dc |
| 100 10 - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Andrey, Christopher |
| Relator term | author |
| 245 00 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Modélisation stochastique et robuste de l’atténuation et de l’adaptation dans un système énergétique régional |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. | |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. | 2015.<br/> |
| 500 ## - GENERAL NOTE | |
| General note | 67 |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | Cet article présente le modèle d’optimisation technico-économique ETEM-AR consacré à l’analyse du futur d’un système de production et d’utilisation de l’énergie à l’échelle régionale. Le modèle prend en compte aussi bien l’atténuation de l’émission de gaz à effet de serre que l’adaptation aux impacts du changement climatique. L’article montre qu’il est possible de combiner l’analyse des politiques d’atténuation et celle des politiques d’adaptation dans des modèles technico-économiques du système énergétique. Le recours à la simulation de scénarios contrastés, à la programmation stochastique et à l’optimisation robuste, permet de prendre en compte les incertitudes associées aux caractéristiques du système énergétique et aux impacts futurs du changement climatique. Le modèle est illustré par une application à la région française Midi-Pyrénées. |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | Stochastic and robust modelling of mitigation and adaptation policies applied to regional systemsThis article presents the long-term techno-economic prospective model ETEM-AR that aims to help decision-makers to analyze the future of the energy mix and energy use at a regional level in the context of climate change. The model incorporates a description of the two potential paths one may choose to follow when confronting the impacts of climate change : mitigation and adaptation, together with the corresponding technologies. The inherent uncertainties in the evaluation of the importance of climate change and of its consequences on the energy sector are treated via stochastic programming and robust optimization. À set of contrasted scenarios is used to describe the possible future consequences of climate change on key parameters of the energy system, such as the reduction of the efficiency of some of the technologies. By comparing the results emerging from the stochastic analysis performed with these scenarios with the analysis of deterministic scenarios, one can understand the necessity, or the absence of it, of investing in certain adaptation technologies prior to the unfolding of the considered uncertainties. The robust optimization techniques are used to ensure the optimal strategy remains a good strategy if some parameters vary in a given interval. The main effect of using a robust analysis is the emergence of a diversification of the technology choices. The model, ETEM-AR, is illustrated here through its application to the French region of Midi-Pyrénées. |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | modélisation |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | environnement |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | politiques climatiques |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | changement climatique |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | gestion de l’incertain |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | climate change |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | uncertainty management |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | environment |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | prospective modelling |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | climate policies |
| 700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Babonneau, Frédéric |
| Relator term | author |
| 700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Haurie, Alain |
| Relator term | author |
| 700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Labriet, Maryse |
| Relator term | author |
| 786 0# - DATA SOURCE ENTRY | |
| Note | Natures Sciences Sociétés | 23 | 2 | 2015-07-09 | p. 133-149 | 1240-1307 |
| 856 41 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="https://shs.cairn.info/revue-natures-sciences-societes-2015-2-page-133?lang=fr&redirect-ssocas=7080">https://shs.cairn.info/revue-natures-sciences-societes-2015-2-page-133?lang=fr&redirect-ssocas=7080</a> |
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