Low-carbon Transition and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities (notice n° 975743)
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| fixed length control field | 04237cam a2200361 4500500 |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20250125120924.0 |
| 041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE | |
| Language code of text/sound track or separate title | fre |
| 042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE | |
| Authentication code | dc |
| 100 10 - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Moreno, Alvaro |
| Relator term | author |
| 245 00 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | Low-carbon Transition and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. | |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. | 2023.<br/> |
| 500 ## - GENERAL NOTE | |
| General note | 58 |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | La transition bas carbone et résiliente au changement climatique implique un processus de restructuration profond du tissu productif, au cours duquel les industries émissives déclinent ou même disparaissent, tandis que les industries en plein essor dites « sunrise » émergent et prospèrent. Ce processus affecte tous les aspects de l’économie : la demande et l’offre, le secteur public et le secteur privé, la structure financière et l’économie informelle. Dans cet article, nous proposons un cadre holistique qui analyse la vulnérabilité macroéconomique qui émerge d’une transition bas carbone, en particulier dans les économies en développement. Nous partons du principe que la vulnérabilité est un phénomène multidimensionnel et, par conséquent, nous prêtons attention à toutes les dimensions fiscales, sociales, monétaires, financières et externes de l’économie. Nous appliquons ensuite ce cadre à l’économie colombienne. Nous utilisons des variables indicatives de la vulnérabilité, sous tous ses aspects, et un modèle de croissance stock-flux cohérent afin de suivre leur évolution dans le temps. Nous partons de deux scénarios liés à une réduction des exportations réelles de combustibles fossiles de la Colombie et à une hausse mondiale des taux d’intérêt. Les résultats indiquent que plus la transition globale est tardive, plus la vulnérabilité de l’économie colombienne est élevée. De même, le durcissement monétaire mondial devient un obstacle au processus de transition, car il induit une vulnérabilité provenant du côté financier et externe de l’économie. Codes JEL E60, Q58, F18 |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | The transition to a low-carbon and climate resilient economy is a process of heavy restructuring of the productive network, during which sunset industries are in decline or even disappear, while sunrise industries emerge and flourish. This process affects all aspects of the economy: the demand and the supply side, the public and the private sector, the financial structure and the informal economy. In this paper, we propose a holistic framework that assesses the macroeconomic vulnerability that emerges from a low-carbon transition, especially in developing economies. We consider vulnerability as a multidimensional phenomenon and, thus, pay attention to all fiscal, social, monetary, financial and external dimensions of the economy. We, then apply this framework to the Colombian economy. We use indicative variables of vulnerability, in all its aspects, and a stock-flow consistent growth model in order to monitor their evolution across time. We consider two scenarios related to a reduction of real fossil fuel exports of Colombia and a global rise in the interest rates. Results indicate that the more delayed is the global transition, the higher the vulnerability of the Colombian economy. Similarly, global monetary tightening becomes an obstacle in the transition process, as it induces vulnerability stemming from the financial and external side of the economy. Jel codes E60, Q58, F18 |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Transition bas carbone |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Colombie |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | vulnérabilités macroéconomiques |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | trajectoires de développement |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Modélisation stock-flux cohérente |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Development trajectories |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Colombia |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Stock-flow Consistent |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | Low carbon transition |
| 700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Guevara, Diego |
| Relator term | author |
| 700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Andrade, Jhan |
| Relator term | author |
| 700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Pierros, Christos |
| Relator term | author |
| 700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Valdecantos, Sebastian |
| Relator term | author |
| 700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Godin, Antoine |
| Relator term | author |
| 700 10 - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Yilmaz, Devrim |
| Relator term | author |
| 786 0# - DATA SOURCE ENTRY | |
| Note | AFD Research Papers | - | 291 | 2023-07-01 | p. 1-34 | 2492 - 2846 |
| 856 41 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="https://shs.cairn.info/journal-afd-research-papers-2023-291-page-1?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080">https://shs.cairn.info/journal-afd-research-papers-2023-291-page-1?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080</a> |
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