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Resume La baisse de population et de services dans les zones rurales préoccupe les décideurs locaux, qui, face aux changements de politiques et de marchés, connaissent des difficultés à anticiper les effets sur la dynamique agricole de leur territoire. Cet article nous présente l’élaboration d’une démarche prospective pour modéliser les effets de changements macroéconomiques et locaux sur l’ensemble des élevages d’une zone d’altitude du Massif Central, qui permet de donner des repères aux acteurs locaux pour distinguer les marges de manœuvres ou les changements que nécessiteront les évolutions agricoles locales et plus globales sur leur territoire.

The decline of population and services in rural areas concern local decision-makers. Dealing with changes in policies and markets, these decision-makers do not have diagnostic tools to estimate the combined effects of such changes in their localities and area. They need tools to represent the effects of Common Agricultural Policy changes, taking into account local characteristics of the agricultural population and economy. This led us to develop an approach to model the effects of macroeconomic and local changes for all farms of an area over several years. Based on a typology, economic farm models and scenarios of agricultural changes, we can approximate the overall farm production of a small territory, the creation of added value and the total and the farm-types income in the area, one year and after a few years, for various policy scenarios and supply chain developments. The approach was developed in 2009 on an altitude area of the French Massif Central. It gives markers to decision-makers dealing with effects of local and international agricultural changes on their territory.