Tensions in the French short-Term Loan Market: A Historical Perspective
Type de matériel :
75
This paper assesses the tensions in the distribution of short-term loans in France in 1994-2013. It is hard to determine how much of the decrease in new loans was due to weaker corporate demand caused by an economic slowdown and how much was due to credit rationing by banks. This is a key issue because each scenario calls for different public policy responses. Using a macroeconometric model, we show that tensions appeared in the wake of recessions (1994-1995 and 2009-2010), with a potential for hampering economic recovery. These episodes were caused by credit supply shocks due to a sharp increase in bad loans amid a rise in credit demand stimulated by a revival of business activity.
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