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Convergence Clubs and Multiple Equilibria: How Did Emerging Economies Escape the Under-Development Trap?

Par : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2006. Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : This paper explores the policy relevance of the underdevelopment trap hypothesis, which postulates that poor countries are locked into a low equilibrium, and that big push policies, involving large amounts of external assistance, would be necessary to lift them out of poverty. It shows that transfers, if not accompanied by structural change, cannot bring about a successful relaunch. The paper then provides a test to identify countries that may have escaped from their underdevelopment trap. The test is based on the observation of multiple growth acceleration patterns that should be observed in the event of successful take-off. The paper identifies a dozen such countries in a set of a hundred developing countries for which growth time series are available from 1950. Comparing these emerging countries with non-emerging countries, it shows that initial education policies have played a critical role in take-off, whereas external assistance has not played a significant role.JEL Classification: O11
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This paper explores the policy relevance of the underdevelopment trap hypothesis, which postulates that poor countries are locked into a low equilibrium, and that big push policies, involving large amounts of external assistance, would be necessary to lift them out of poverty. It shows that transfers, if not accompanied by structural change, cannot bring about a successful relaunch. The paper then provides a test to identify countries that may have escaped from their underdevelopment trap. The test is based on the observation of multiple growth acceleration patterns that should be observed in the event of successful take-off. The paper identifies a dozen such countries in a set of a hundred developing countries for which growth time series are available from 1950. Comparing these emerging countries with non-emerging countries, it shows that initial education policies have played a critical role in take-off, whereas external assistance has not played a significant role.JEL Classification: O11

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