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The media often portray the Arctic region as unstable and subject to new Cold-War type tensions. However, a quick historical review of security in the region shows that the Arctic is now relatively stable. Indeed, cooperation is the dominant force and even constitutes a major characteristic of Arctic politics. Traditional security concerns are therefore relatively limited. However, the region is currently experiencing major transformations, of which the consequences are as yet unknown. This raises the question of how uncertainty should be taken into account in Arctic security and defence policy. This is what this study sets out to address.