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Is the 2020 economic crisis the last nail in globalization’s coffin?: A reading in the context of the COVID-19 health crisis

Par : Contributeur(s) : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2022. Sujet(s) : Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : The traditional relationship between economic growth and international trade has been significantly disrupted by the COVID-19 crisis since spring 2020. While some international economic organizations are predicting a marked deepening of the growth cycle (OECD, IMF, etc.) or of foreign direct investment (UNCTAD), the WTO is warning of a much more pronounced worsening affecting world trade in goods and services. Although the pessimism of the statistical forecasts is almost unanimous among economists and political observers, this is not the case for the structural effects induced by the crisis itself. For some, the COVID-19 crisis signals the end of globalization by provoking a forced march toward the regionalization of trade and a return to public policies determined by the imperative of national sovereignty. For others, the previous production model will experience changes such as a regionalization of supply chains, a shortening of value chains, and a relocation of activities closer to consumer markets. In other words, the new age of globalization will lead to protection without succumbing to protectionism. The article provides sufficient material to compare these doctrines, presenting their arguments and proposals side by side in a context where hypotheses about the duration and extent of the crisis remain fundamentally uncertain.
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The traditional relationship between economic growth and international trade has been significantly disrupted by the COVID-19 crisis since spring 2020. While some international economic organizations are predicting a marked deepening of the growth cycle (OECD, IMF, etc.) or of foreign direct investment (UNCTAD), the WTO is warning of a much more pronounced worsening affecting world trade in goods and services. Although the pessimism of the statistical forecasts is almost unanimous among economists and political observers, this is not the case for the structural effects induced by the crisis itself. For some, the COVID-19 crisis signals the end of globalization by provoking a forced march toward the regionalization of trade and a return to public policies determined by the imperative of national sovereignty. For others, the previous production model will experience changes such as a regionalization of supply chains, a shortening of value chains, and a relocation of activities closer to consumer markets. In other words, the new age of globalization will lead to protection without succumbing to protectionism. The article provides sufficient material to compare these doctrines, presenting their arguments and proposals side by side in a context where hypotheses about the duration and extent of the crisis remain fundamentally uncertain.

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