Dynamic and Strategic Behaviors on the World Phosphate Market
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73
This paper studies the dynamics of world raw phosphate prices in relation to market demand and supply. The analysis details global mechanisms of successive phases in market demand and supply that are sustained by the strategies of the main raw phosphate producers. Cooperation, non-cooperation, and predation have been the main strategies of the two dominant players, namely OCP (Morocco) and Phosrock (USA) during the 1960?2000 period. These strategies are analyzed using the prisoner's dilemma and the limit pricing models. We consider a two-step game within a duopoly, following the Kreps-Scheinkman framework and the Cournot and Bertrand duopoly hypothesis. Results reveal the influence of fluctuations in stockpiles and prices for phosphate fertilizer on the world raw phosphate market.
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