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European Security and Defense Policy is at a cross-roads. In spite of the accomplishments (external operations Artemis and Concordia) and institutional progress which have marked the last few years, it suffers certain congenital weaknesses (divergence on the Atlantic link, long tradition of autonomous foreign policies, etc.) Progress will be evaluated by future performance in the context of new threats which could appear on the international scene. From the prospective analysis of different factors which can/cannot influence the Union Common External and Defense Policy, three scenarios of possible evolution emerge: “A big Switzerland” a Union which limits itself to civil power; “The hard cores”; a pragmatic evolution of PESD; and last, “the US disengagement” which induces an accelerated unification.