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Speculative Attacks and the Credibility of Exchange Rate Regime

Par : Contributeur(s) : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2001. Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : Since the Asian and Brazilian exchange rate crises have occurred, the reaction of authorities has been the subject of an intense debate. Indeed, coping with a speculative attack, domestic authorities both increase interest rates and contract fiscal policy. It appears that such a combination of policy instruments is counterproductive. This paper analyses the credibility of the policy-mix used by authorities. But, opposite to traditional credibility models, fiscal policy is explicitly introduced in the loss function of the authorities. The model suggests that a restrictive fiscal policy is not necessary a credible decision to defence the exchange rate target. Classification JEL: E5; E6; F4
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Since the Asian and Brazilian exchange rate crises have occurred, the reaction of authorities has been the subject of an intense debate. Indeed, coping with a speculative attack, domestic authorities both increase interest rates and contract fiscal policy. It appears that such a combination of policy instruments is counterproductive. This paper analyses the credibility of the policy-mix used by authorities. But, opposite to traditional credibility models, fiscal policy is explicitly introduced in the loss function of the authorities. The model suggests that a restrictive fiscal policy is not necessary a credible decision to defence the exchange rate target. Classification JEL: E5; E6; F4

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