League table uncertainty and soccer attendance in French Ligue 1: A new approach
Type de matériel :
70
This study proposes a new method for evaluating the effects that uncertainty about the result of a match and the final league table have on attendance at Ligue 1 soccer games in France. The uncertainty about the result of a match is assessed on the basis of the gap in quality between the teams. In this study, the quality of the teams is assessed based on the average wages of their players. However, unlike previous studies, these assessments are further adjusted according to the results of these specific teams over the course of the season. Moreover, instead of relying on an aggregate indicator to assess the uncertainty about the final league table, we estimate the probability of each possible final league table. This procedure allows us to make use of more complete statistical information in the estimation than is usual in this kind of study. Three main results emerged. First, uncertainty about the result of the match has on a positive, significant, and non-linear effect on supporters’ attendance. Second, we observe that the final league table has two opposite effects on supporters’ behavior: while they do not want to see rival teams catch up with theirs, they want a higher level of uncertainty when it comes to the final league table. Third, supporters’ attendance does not linearly decrease with their team’s position in the league table, but this link presents a sinusoidal curve. The reason for this is that supporters’ attendance also depends on the likelihood of their team qualifying for the following season’s Europa League and also on the likelihood of their team being relegated from Ligue 1 at the end of the season. We also show that supporters’ attendance is directly proportional to the level of uncertainty regarding the league title winner. In particular, the attractiveness of the league has been negatively affected by the recent financial power of PSG.
Réseaux sociaux