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Are judicial decisions based solely on laws and facts? Legal formalism considers that judges should apply legal reasoning to the facts of a case in a manner that is rational, mechanical and deliberative. A realistic approach, meanwhile, would suggest that psychological, political and social factors influence judicial decisions, This study takes the common belief that justice reflects “what the judge had for breakfast” to the letter in its review of decisions relating to conditional release. The result is that the percentage of decisions in favour of conditional release declines gradually from around 65 % to close to zero over the course of each decision-making hearing and then jumps back up sharply to around 65 % after a break.