34

With the global economy almost grinding to a halt during the first wave of Covid-19, then making a labored recovery in 2020, substantial impacts have been felt across the transport sector. Much has been said about air transport, which suffered from reduced levels of tourism, but the decline in manufacturing production and international trade also greatly affected freight transport, most of which uses maritime routes. Maritime transport had already borne the brunt of the 2008 economic crisis. Does this second major setback spell the end of a golden age for the sector?Continuing our series on the seas and oceans, Antoine Frémont reviews the state of maritime transport, which, having seen a continual, unprecedented rise in traffic, is now falling victim to the vagaries of (de)globalization. Following a review of the sector’s long-term development, he explores the ever-increasing size of container ships, the geographical shift in production zones, and the subsequent rise in trade with Asia. He draws attention to the uncertainties arising from the aftermath of the 2008 and 2020 crises, the ongoing reconfigurations at play, and the risks associated with “the oligopoly of containerized transport.” However, he also highlights the impact of the ecological transition (particularly visible in Europe), notably on the transport of hydrocarbons and on demands for reduced pollution from ships. Last, in this new and as yet unsettled context, he proposes three possible scenarios for how maritime transport could develop by the year 2040: a crisis scenario, a return to peaceful multilateralism, and a vision of a two-speed global system.