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Two and a half years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war is at an impasse and the EU finds itself at the heart of a territory under serious threat yet lacking genuine military and defence autonomy and reliant on protection by the Atlantic Alliance and the USA. As this situation persists and the peaceful interlude of the last half century rapidly draws to a close, the EU is becoming increasingly vulnerable. In this context, Jean-François Drevet points, in this Chronicle, to three particularly worrying elements: the risk of a European diplomatic defeat, the reality of the guarantees for protecting the continent which NATO is supposed to provide, and the EU’s budgetary shortfall in terms of defence spending. How could — or should — these three elements develop to limit this increased European vulnerability? Given its finances and institutional framework, what is the EU’s actual room for manœuvre when it comes to preserving its peace and security?