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Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries

Par : Contributeur(s) : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2014. Sujet(s) : Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : This article is concerned with the evolution of public finances in CEEC members of the European Union since the beginning of the 2000s, and with its effects on growth. We start by putting forward a theoretical context within which to understand the impact of budgetary deficits on growth. We go on to use data analysis from the 2000-2013 period to isolate a threshold effect caused by the public debt/PIB ratio on the relationship between public deficit and growth. This relationship is one of growth up to a certain threshold of public debt, that we estimate to be between 69 and 79% of the PIB according to models, and becomes negative beyond that. This result does not allow for the consideration of strong anti-Keynesian effects being able to counteract the depressionary impact of a budgetary adjustment in the area, since most economies in the region, with the exception of Hungary, have not yet reached threshold, so that Keynesian effects seem to have to dominate.
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This article is concerned with the evolution of public finances in CEEC members of the European Union since the beginning of the 2000s, and with its effects on growth. We start by putting forward a theoretical context within which to understand the impact of budgetary deficits on growth. We go on to use data analysis from the 2000-2013 period to isolate a threshold effect caused by the public debt/PIB ratio on the relationship between public deficit and growth. This relationship is one of growth up to a certain threshold of public debt, that we estimate to be between 69 and 79% of the PIB according to models, and becomes negative beyond that. This result does not allow for the consideration of strong anti-Keynesian effects being able to counteract the depressionary impact of a budgetary adjustment in the area, since most economies in the region, with the exception of Hungary, have not yet reached threshold, so that Keynesian effects seem to have to dominate.

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