The Political-Economic Situation and French Legislative Elections Results
Type de matériel :
TexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2003.
Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : The aim of this article is to build and estimate a model that explains and forecasts the result of the French legislative elections by department. This model, that constitutes the first attempt for such geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Furthermore, its behavior for the 2002 elections was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intentions polls as an electoral forecasting instrument.Classification JEL: C23, C53, D72
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The aim of this article is to build and estimate a model that explains and forecasts the result of the French legislative elections by department. This model, that constitutes the first attempt for such geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Furthermore, its behavior for the 2002 elections was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intentions polls as an electoral forecasting instrument.Classification JEL: C23, C53, D72
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