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Faced with the municipal toxic loans crisis, the French state has created a support fund conditioned on local governments abandoning legal proceedings against these structured credits. This article econometrically studies the state’s strategy by retrieving the factors explaining the fund’s assistance to the municipalities. The overhead ratio of these toxic loans stands out as the main factor in granting aid, ahead of the municipalities’ financial situation. This indicator was used as a basis for the legal authorities to rule in favor of the municipalities. The fact that it predicts the fund’s support reflects the state’s strategy to limit litigation. This contribution thus discusses the strategic choices for settling the crisis.