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Wind of change: How climate disasters are reshaping opinions on environmental policy

Par : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2023. Sujet(s) : Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : Each individual in the United States is exposed on average to 9 climate disasters during their lifetime, with possible effects on political attitude formation, in particular in the realm of environmental policy. Using data on hurricanes, floods, and severe storms from 1953 to 2014, I show that exposure to disasters is a key determinant of support for environmental public action, and that this effect is lasting over an individual’s lifetime. A one standard deviation increase in lifetime climate disaster exposure increases the probability of expressing a pro-environmental opinion by 9 percentage points and liberal views by 15 percentage points of a standard deviation. I show that the effect on environmental opinions is channeled by direct exposure to a disaster. Investigating heterogeneous effects along partisan lines reveals that it is mostly Democrats who are affected by the disaster experience, especially those living in red states. The results can be read in light of the theory of rational retrospective voting, as voters are more likely to punish governors who are ideologically less supportive of public action after a climate disaster. These results add to the mounting evidence of the polarization of US citizens on environmental issues. JEL codes: Q54, H84
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Each individual in the United States is exposed on average to 9 climate disasters during their lifetime, with possible effects on political attitude formation, in particular in the realm of environmental policy. Using data on hurricanes, floods, and severe storms from 1953 to 2014, I show that exposure to disasters is a key determinant of support for environmental public action, and that this effect is lasting over an individual’s lifetime. A one standard deviation increase in lifetime climate disaster exposure increases the probability of expressing a pro-environmental opinion by 9 percentage points and liberal views by 15 percentage points of a standard deviation. I show that the effect on environmental opinions is channeled by direct exposure to a disaster. Investigating heterogeneous effects along partisan lines reveals that it is mostly Democrats who are affected by the disaster experience, especially those living in red states. The results can be read in light of the theory of rational retrospective voting, as voters are more likely to punish governors who are ideologically less supportive of public action after a climate disaster. These results add to the mounting evidence of the polarization of US citizens on environmental issues. JEL codes: Q54, H84

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