15

After five years of sluggish growth, a recovery is finally taking shape in France, with GDP expected to rise by 1.8% in 2017, 1.7% in 2018, and 1.9% in 2019. The effects of some idiosyncratic shocks that affected past performance will dissipate, while a stronger European economy will support growth. Moreover, the brighter financial prospects for French firms should boost their export market shares. Fiscal consolidation should be moderate in the coming years. In this context, the recovery will be robust, enough to create jobs in the business sector and bring the unemployment rate in metropolitan France down to 8.5% by the end of 2019. The reduction of the public deficit will be slow but sufficient to stay below the 3% mark and ensure the exit from the corrective arm of the Stability Pact. JEL codes: E3, E6, E24, E31, E66.