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Fiscal rules: An empirical analysis with revised and real-time data

Par : Contributeur(s) : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2019. Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : Based on the estimation of fiscal rules over a panel of 19 OECD countries, we seek to measure, on revised and real-time data, the contribution of the main macroeconomic determinants of fiscal policy: stabilization of the cycle vs. stabilization of debt dynamics, depending on the business cycle position and whether or not the country belongs to the euro zone. First, we find no empirical evidence of “irresponsible” fiscal behaviour, in terms of fiscal sustainability constraints, among euro zone countries. Second, we obtain mixed results regarding the counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy. We find that fiscal policy is broadly counter-cyclical at the top of the cycle and outside the crisis years, thanks to automatic stabilizers. But if we consider only its discretionary component, it appears rather pro-cyclical, particularly at the bottom of the cycle and during crisis years. Finally, we find that the main difference between euro zone countries and the other countries in our panel is the pro-cyclical nature of fiscal consolidation policy in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 crisis. JEL codes: E6, H6
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Based on the estimation of fiscal rules over a panel of 19 OECD countries, we seek to measure, on revised and real-time data, the contribution of the main macroeconomic determinants of fiscal policy: stabilization of the cycle vs. stabilization of debt dynamics, depending on the business cycle position and whether or not the country belongs to the euro zone. First, we find no empirical evidence of “irresponsible” fiscal behaviour, in terms of fiscal sustainability constraints, among euro zone countries. Second, we obtain mixed results regarding the counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy. We find that fiscal policy is broadly counter-cyclical at the top of the cycle and outside the crisis years, thanks to automatic stabilizers. But if we consider only its discretionary component, it appears rather pro-cyclical, particularly at the bottom of the cycle and during crisis years. Finally, we find that the main difference between euro zone countries and the other countries in our panel is the pro-cyclical nature of fiscal consolidation policy in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 crisis. JEL codes: E6, H6

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