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The economics of a global climate agreement in the world “as it is”

Par : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2022. Sujet(s) : Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : Complying with the “well below 2°C” target depends on a global agreement, from COP28, on the financing of countries’ “voluntary actions” (cf. the Paris Agreement) in a context of uncertainty about the post-Covid-19 economic recovery. Macroeconomically, this financing cannot be separated from the reduction of the structural deficit in infrastructure investment, which is a precondition for reducing poverty (“first and over-riding priority” of the Climate Agreement) and achieving the sustainable development goals. We show that this reduction requires the “de-risking” of investments and the emergence of a low-carbon asset class to redirect global savings towards developing countries, where two-thirds of low-carbon investment must be deployed. We then discuss the possibility of supporting a stronger and more robust post-Covid recovery than “colourless” recoveries by alleviating the debt constraint that weighs on most of these countries using tools that ensure the “proper use” of the payment facilities thus granted. Finally, we outline a “circle of trust” for the ecological transition that could be triggered by a multilateral system of public guarantees granted by developed countries for low-carbon investments in the countries of the South – a circle of trust that could eventually open the way for more far-reaching changes in the financial system.
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Complying with the “well below 2°C” target depends on a global agreement, from COP28, on the financing of countries’ “voluntary actions” (cf. the Paris Agreement) in a context of uncertainty about the post-Covid-19 economic recovery. Macroeconomically, this financing cannot be separated from the reduction of the structural deficit in infrastructure investment, which is a precondition for reducing poverty (“first and over-riding priority” of the Climate Agreement) and achieving the sustainable development goals. We show that this reduction requires the “de-risking” of investments and the emergence of a low-carbon asset class to redirect global savings towards developing countries, where two-thirds of low-carbon investment must be deployed. We then discuss the possibility of supporting a stronger and more robust post-Covid recovery than “colourless” recoveries by alleviating the debt constraint that weighs on most of these countries using tools that ensure the “proper use” of the payment facilities thus granted. Finally, we outline a “circle of trust” for the ecological transition that could be triggered by a multilateral system of public guarantees granted by developed countries for low-carbon investments in the countries of the South – a circle of trust that could eventually open the way for more far-reaching changes in the financial system.

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