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Although there is no evidence in Michelet of an epistemology of chance per se, his work nonetheless sketches out an overall theory of the belief in chance. The author of l’Histoire de France understands this belief to be the expression, in terms of mentalities, of the system of Grace, which organised the Ancien Régime and culminated in the 17th century, that “great century of games of chance”, where arbitrariness reigned on Earth as in Heaven. In order to combat this belief, which favours inaction and the hatred of reason, Michelet will show it to be rooted in the history of the world, at the heart of Jewish messianism. On the basis of this genealogy of chance which Michelet contrasts with the wisdom of the Indo-Greek tradition, the philosopher-historian can contemplate a faith and an education capable of reducing the belief in chance both on a theological and political plane and on a scientific one.