International migration: For potential long term growth?
Type de matériel :
52
International net migration is an important factor of Belgium’s population growth, and it will remain so according to the projections of the Federal Planning Bureau and Statbel. Moreover, the specific age structure of the migrants (mostly aged between 18 and 66 years) influences the economy and in particular the labor market. This aspect is addressed through the impact of international net migration on long-term potential economic growth. The impact analysis is carried out by means of an alternative scenario of lower net migration that implies a reduction of the active age population by 2.2% in 2060 in comparison with the reference scenario. This effect on the active age population leads to a decrease of employment of the same magnitude, and therefore a reduction of 2.2% of the potential GDP in 2060. For illustrative purposes, this decline in potential growth increases the budgetary cost of aging by 0.5 percentage points of GDP between 2016 and 2060. Over the years, this theoretically low increase of the budgetary cost of aging further increases what was already a very significant level of public debt. JEL codes: J11
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