The Changing Rate of Return of Pensions Across Different Cohorts
Type de matériel :
64
The rate of return is a natural indicator for a funded pension system, but it can also be calculated for a PAYG system like the one in France. In this study, we calculate and compare the replacement rates that several cohorts (1950 to 1985) have benefited from. The rate of return is broken down into two sub-indicators: an indicator of generosity (the benefit rate), and an indicator of contributory effort (the contribution rate). These three indicators are calculated over the life cycle, i.e. taking into account the number of years worked and the number of years a pension was paid out, not just the amount of the pension paid out at retirement.To explain the decrease in the replacement rate over the cohorts, we examine more closely each of its three determinants. The first determinant is the funding of the pension system, particularly the sharp increase in exemptions and new revenue other than contributions. The second determinant is the rate of economic growth, which strongly influences the rate of return and the sustainability of the pension system. That dependence leads us to question the choice of discount rate, crucial to indicators calculated over the life cycle. The third determinant is the breakdown of life into periods of education, work and retirement, which has changed considerably in response to successive reforms.
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