Determining the Geographic Origins of Migrants Using Surnames: French Cities of the Early Twentieth Century
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4
A Bayesian method is suggested for estimating the probability of the geographical origins of immigrants in a given area, using surname frequencies and changes over time. This method is applied to the case of immigrants leaving rural or small districts to settle large urban areas at the time of World War I. The diversity of the origins of these new urban dwellers is linked to the specific geographical and historical features of the cities receiving immigrants.
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