Climate change and fiscal sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa
Type de matériel :
7
Against the backdrop of high exposure and vulnerability to climate change, this paper examines how climate change, measured by the occurrence of natural disasters, affects fiscal outturns in a sample of forty-five sub-Saharan African countries during the period 2000-2019. Looking at various indicators of fiscal outturns (government revenue, expenditure, budget balance, and total public debt) our predictions are largely supported by fixed effects models and local projections. Climate shocks lead to lower revenues, have a limited impact on expenditure, but worsen the budget deficit and total public debt. Nonetheless, the transmission of natural disaster shocks to fiscal outturns appears to be confined within the first year after the occurrence of the natural disaster. Codes JEL : Q54, N27, H61.
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