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A diversified and industrialized economy, a NATO member since 1952, a founding member of the OECD in 1961 and a member of the G20, Turkey[1] enjoys an enviable geostrategic position. Its development and human capital indicators are also satisfactory, which can largely be put down to the first decade of the Erdoğan-AKP era (2002-2012). They have, however, deteriorated in recent years. The key issues for socioeconomic development for the coming years include 1/ political and geopolitical stability within a troubled region; 2/ the achievement of high-income status and a prosperity benefiting the entire population; 3/ a decisive step forward in policies for climate change adaptation and energy transition, effectiveness and independence. The first decade following the accession to power of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2002 was marked by the success of the restoration of macroeconomic stability in the aftermath of the 2001 financial crisis, and was coupled with rather remarkable socioeconomic development. During the second decade, the government’s action focused more on societal and moral issues, to the detriment of macroeconomic fundamentals and structural reforms. The third decade, which is beginning at the same time as the second centenary of the Republic of Turkey, founded in 1923, needs to place the economy, prosperity and national cohesion at the heart of the priorities. To ensure the posterity of his action, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could now devote what should be his final term as the country’s leader to this task (2023-2028). The orthodox shift in economic policy, initiated following the general elections in May 2023 won by President Erdoğan, would not appear to have been undermined by the AKP’s defeat in the local elections in March 2024. Following a decade marked by a radical strengthening of the prerogatives of the Head of State, these elections are a victory for representative democracy, in a highly polarized society which has sanctioned the failure of the executive to safeguard the standard of living and social and economic gains of the population. In the wake of this electoral cycle and with no new national elections until 2028, the socio-political risk would appear to be moderate. Drawing on the two pillars, namely the banking sector and public finances, it will be crucial to secure the “normalization” of economic policy in order to remove the macroeconomic imbalances generated or exacerbated by the economic choices of the executive. This especially includes rampant inflation fueled by credit and the depreciation of the lira, along with the external position, the traditional weak link. In June 2023, the appointment of Mehmet Şimşek and Hafize Gaye Erkan to the key positions of Minister of Finance and Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB), respectively, was welcomed by investors, whose confidence, as with local economic agents, needs to be restored. In February 2024, the resignation of Mrs. Erkan served as a reminder of the difficulty of imposing long-term continuity. Her successor, Fatih Karahan, Deputy Governor since July 2023, will have the task of maintaining the course of monetary orthodoxy. The economic policy strategy in place for a year now is akin to a three-stage rocket: 1/ a gradual normalization of the monetary policy to ensure an orderly macro-financial adjustment and a soft landing of the economy; 2/ fiscal consolidation as of 2025, particularly in view of the cost of reconstruction after the earthquakes in February 2023; 3/ the adoption of structural reforms (at a standstill for a decade) to improve the business environment, support non-price competitiveness, productivity, attractiveness to investors, medium/long-term economic growth potential, and the green transition. Thematic area: Macroeconomics Geographical area: Turkey