Ducoudré, Bruno <br/><br/>
What do branches data teach us about the CICE’s initial effects? Evaluation for the period 2014 – q2 2015 

 -  2017.<br/>							 
<br/><br/> 82 
<br/><br/> Bruno Ducoudré, Éric Heyer and Mathieu Plane This paper aims to highlight the potential effects of the Competitiveness and Employment Tax Credit (CICE) on the French economy over the period from 2014 to the end of the second quarter of 2015. It is based on information from quarterly national accounts by occupational sector. Beginning with an econometric analysis of panel data, we endeavour to find out whether the CICE has had effects on employment, wages and value-added prices. This method enables us to identify and quantify the CICE’s relative cross-sector effects on these variables, but does not allow macroeconomic effects to be deduced. Based on our estimates for 16 occupational sectors, the results show that for a tax credit equal to 1 % of wages and salaries, employment in a sector would rise by 0.5 % compared to other sectors, and wages by 0.7 %. Lastly, using the results of estimates carried out at the same time, we can quantify these relative cross-sector effects at 1.1 % for wages and 120,000 jobs (either created or safeguarded).