Cherkaoui, Adil

Three decades of research on overconfidence among executives: Systematic review and bibliometric mapping (1993-2024) - 2026.


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This research combines a bibliometric analysis and a systematic review of 649 articles (1993-2024) from Scopus and Web of Science. Using R Studio and following the PRISMA protocol, this study conducts a critical review of the literature on overconfidence and strategic decision-making. The analysis reveals important trends in scientific production, notable journals, and the most productive researchers in the field. Thus, 72 articles were selected from the initial dataset for qualitative analysis. This qualitative analysis revealed that executive overconfidence significantly impacts governance mechanisms by influencing the ownership structure, financial incentive systems, and the board composition. A contextual analysis incorporating mediating variables such as the frequency of CEO evaluations, long-term performance-based compensation and organizational culture would provide a better understanding of this complex dynamic and help to nuance its effects. The literature also shows that this bias has two facets: it can either foster innovation and creative strategies or lead to excessive risk-taking and value destruction for the company. Among the mechanisms that can neutralize this bias, we find firstly the active presence of institutional investors, a cap on variable compensation and the need to use independent audit committees, which makes it possible to reconcile strategic performance and organizational stability. The study also highlights several limitations, including insufficient attention to certain psychological traits (such as narcissism), excessive geographical concentration and a lack of studies on developing contexts particularly in the MENA region.