TY  - BOOK
AU  - Bellone,Benoît
AU  -  Gautier,Erwan
AU  -  Le Coent,Sébastien
TI  - Do Financial Markets Anticipate Cyclical Turning Points?
PY  - 2006///.
							
N1  - 7
N2  - This article aims to estimate leading indicators of the U.S. economy with financial variables. We use two types of hidden Markov chain models: a quantitative one (Krolzig (1997)) and a qualitative one (Gregoir and Lenglart (2000)). Both models provide a robust and reliable framework for using financial variables to build a qualitative probabilistic indicator with a 3- to 6-month lead on the business and growth cycles. In the past forty years, the financial market has rarely provided false signals; on the contrary, it has identified all six recessions - as dated by the NBER - and slowdowns in the U.S. economy
UR  - https://shs.cairn.info/journal-economie-et-prevision-1-2006-1-page-83?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080
ER  -