TY - BOOK AU - Adanero-Donderis,Marie AU - Darné,Olivier AU - Ferrara,Laurent TI - A Probabilistic Indicator of the Acceleration Cycle in the French Economy PY - 2009///. N1 - 60 N2 - We describe a new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicator developed by the Banque de France in order to detect, on a monthly basis, the turning points in the French economy’s acceleration cycle. The indicator is based on the methodology of Markov-switching models and uses the Bank’s monthly business survey as input. A pseudo-real-time validation since1998 shows the indicator’s usefulness in short-term economic analysis. This type of indicator provides original qualitative information that complements standard quantitative tools for estimating GDP growth UR - https://shs.cairn.info/journal-economie-et-prevision-1-2009-3-page-95?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080 ER -