Criqui, Patrick <br/><br/>
Staying the course for the energy-climate transition. Foresight in conditions of uncertainty 

 -  2023.<br/>							 
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<br/><br/> With its Green Deal in 2019 and its “Fit for 55” package in 2021 (referring to the aim of a 55 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030), the European Union began this decade on a highly proactive trajectory in its fight against climate change. But although the COVID-19 crisis showed that lifestyle changes favoring energy sufficiency were possible, the subsequent return to more wasteful behaviors and, most importantly, the conflict in Ukraine substantially changed the context for energy transition. How are we to stay the course and advance into the future—and into a carbon-neutral future in particular? Here, Patrick Criqui and Emmanuel Hache ask themselves that question and take the measure of this new context, which has become highly unstable for the energy-climate transition. They assess the geopolitical uncertainties (international climate negotiations; war in Ukraine and tensions between states; the energy crisis), as well as uncertainties around technology (endogenous technical progress; creative destruction and disruptive technologies; socio-technical transitions) and those of a societal nature (the levers for individual and collective change to promote energy sufficiency). Last, they sketch out four distinct climate-foresight scenarios for the years to 2050, combining a more or less cooperative pattern of international relations with the dynamics and pace of decarbonization. This foresight provides a solid base enabling a planning of technological transitions that identifies the most desirable future(s) and charts the best course for bringing them about. S.D.