TY  - BOOK
AU  - Nguiffo-Boyom,Muriel
TI  - A Cyclical Turning-Point Indicator for France: Application of the Dynamic-Factor Model with Regime Switching
PY  - 2006///.
							
N1  - 8
N2  - This article proposes the construction of a turning-point indicator obtained by estimating a dynamic-factor model with regime switching. The factor summarizing the sentiment of economic agents about economic activity is extracted from four balances of opinion in three business surveys conducted by the French National Statistical Institute (INSEE). The opinion displays optimistic and pessimistic phases, which are modeled with a Markov-switching model. We can also predict opinion turning points, which correspond to the model changes in the regime. We show that turning points in opinion tend to lead GDP turning points, a property that enables us to construct a cyclical turning-point indicator
UR  - https://shs.cairn.info/journal-economie-et-prevision-1-2006-1-page-101?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080
ER  -