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Scenarios for Fishing and Aquaculture in France in 2050

Par : Contributeur(s) : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2025. Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : The seas and oceans—to which Futuribles devoted a whole series of articles between 2020 and 2022—not only feed us, but store carbon dioxide, contribute to electricity generation and represent a reservoir of biodiversity. Yet they are also increasingly under pressure. Climate change, overfishing and pollution mean that aquatic species, both animal and vegetal, are threatened and, with them, a part of the resources that contribute to our food supply. How, in this context, should we think about the future and ensure that use of the sea’s resources and of the functions it performs remains sustainable in the long term?In order to inform decision-makers, citizens and those operating in the relevant sectors, Ifremer has carried out a foresight exercise on the future of fishing and aquaculture in France (the ‘Foresea 2050’ Project). The aim was to propose scenarios that described various possible futures for these industries in the years to 2050, and to sketch out the most desirable trajectories. In this article, Mathieu Doray and Denis Lacroix outline the foresight exercise performed between December 2021 and June 2023, which developed five scenarios for French fishing and aquaculture in 2050, some of them highly negative (chaos, decline), but others making for more positive trajectories (“self-restraint”, “fossil-free”, “gambling on technology”). They detail the methodology applied and tools deployed to gauge the adaptability of these scenarios in the event of various possible trend-breaks, both positive and negative, and to determine which would be the most adaptable and conducive to sustainable development. The exercise opens up a number of avenues for anticipating change and enabling the economic, scientific and political actors and bodies within the industry to act now to set themselves on their preferred future course.
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The seas and oceans—to which Futuribles devoted a whole series of articles between 2020 and 2022—not only feed us, but store carbon dioxide, contribute to electricity generation and represent a reservoir of biodiversity. Yet they are also increasingly under pressure. Climate change, overfishing and pollution mean that aquatic species, both animal and vegetal, are threatened and, with them, a part of the resources that contribute to our food supply. How, in this context, should we think about the future and ensure that use of the sea’s resources and of the functions it performs remains sustainable in the long term?In order to inform decision-makers, citizens and those operating in the relevant sectors, Ifremer has carried out a foresight exercise on the future of fishing and aquaculture in France (the ‘Foresea 2050’ Project). The aim was to propose scenarios that described various possible futures for these industries in the years to 2050, and to sketch out the most desirable trajectories. In this article, Mathieu Doray and Denis Lacroix outline the foresight exercise performed between December 2021 and June 2023, which developed five scenarios for French fishing and aquaculture in 2050, some of them highly negative (chaos, decline), but others making for more positive trajectories (“self-restraint”, “fossil-free”, “gambling on technology”). They detail the methodology applied and tools deployed to gauge the adaptability of these scenarios in the event of various possible trend-breaks, both positive and negative, and to determine which would be the most adaptable and conducive to sustainable development. The exercise opens up a number of avenues for anticipating change and enabling the economic, scientific and political actors and bodies within the industry to act now to set themselves on their preferred future course.

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