000			02153cam a2200193 4500500
005			20251214033620.0
041			_afre
042			_adc
100	1	0	_aToukap Yimele, Laure Béatrice _eauthor
700	1	0	_aZogo, Thérèse Elomo _eauthor
700	1	0	_aTamno Tekam, Jacques Éric _eauthor
700	1	0	_aKeneck-Massil, Joseph _eauthor
245	0	0	_aWhy Do Coups d’état Occur In Developing Countries?
260			_c2025.
500			_a98
520			_aThis article examines the main determinants of coups d’État in developing countries, given the uncertainty in choosing potential explanatory factors. The Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is applied to a sample of 95 countries. The analysis identifies five key factors influencing the occurrence and success of coups d’État on a global scale: the number of major constitutional changes, acts of revolution, the added value of the agricultural sector, multipartyism, and the level of education. Robustness tests demonstrate that, in addition to the impact of constitutional changes and acts of revolution, military coups are influenced by government size, the added value of the agricultural sector, the military role of the Minister of Defense, and opposition fragmentation. In contrast, civil coups shed light on factors such as the level of education, government crises, and democracy. Some factors vary following the geographical and colonial context. The results lend support to the notion that constitutional changes can potentially explain the occurrence of coups d’État in Africa, although these effects tend to diminish within a year. In America, the level of inflation, economic freedom, corruption, the age of the ruling party, and the spatial distribution of conflicts emerge as significant factors. The analysis using alternative methods GETS and LASSO confirms the decisive nature of constitutional changes and acts of revolution as determinants of the occurrence of coups d’État.
786	0		_nRevue économique | 76 | 3 | 2025-10-24 | p. 437-491 | 0035-2764
856	4	1	_uhttps://shs.cairn.info/journal-revue-economique-2025-3-page-437?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080
999			_c1575869 _d1575869