000			01461cam a2200217 4500500
005			20250112031935.0
041			_afre
042			_adc
100	1	0	_aAudenis, Cédric _eauthor
700	1	0	_a Prost, Corinne _eauthor
245	0	0	_aPublic Finances and the Economic Cycle: An Alternative Approach
260			_c2003.
500			_a86
520			_aInternational organisations define the cyclical balance in terms of the impact of the fluctuations in present activity on the public balance. We suggest an alternative method, based on the estimation of a VAR model having as variables the deficit expressed in GDP points and the GDP growth rate. The non-cyclical balance is defined as the balance that would have been obtained if GDP had remained on its trend. This method estimates the impact of the economic cycle on the public balance without it being necessary to identify a priori the modifications in legislation that are of a structural nature. In addition, it incorporates the impact of past fluctuations in activity on the present balance. However, the scale of the cyclical balance calculated using this approach remains sensitive to the choice of GDP trend.
690			_astructural balance
690			_aVAR
690			_afiscal policy
690			_acycles
786	0		_nEconomie & prévision | o 157 | 1 | 2003-03-01 | p. 1-12 | 0249-4744
856	4	1	_uhttps://shs.cairn.info/journal-economie-et-prevision-1-2003-1-page-1?lang=en
999			_c157627 _d157627