000 01553cam a2200217 4500500
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041 _afre
042 _adc
100 1 0 _aFontagné, Lionel
_eauthor
700 1 0 _a Pajot, Michaël
_eauthor
700 1 0 _a Pasteels, Jean-Michel
_eauthor
245 0 0 _aTrade Potential among Heterogeneous Economies: A Short Guide to Gravity Models
260 _c2002.
500 _a49
520 _aTwo opposite forces determine the intensity of bilateral trade between countries: an attractive force (country size and income) and a repulsive force (distance and other barriers to trade). Building on a now well-established theoretical basis and minimum data requirements, gravity equations – which combine the above variables – have become one of the most popular tools for analysing international trade. And calculating trade potential is certainly their most widely used application: a gravity equation is estimated and then used for a simulation. This paper examines the problems associated with this methodology and offers original solutions, focusing particularly on choice of estimation sample. A gravity model estimated for 75 heterogeneous countries trading in 14 sectors covering 261 industries is used to illustrate this approach.
690 _agravity model
690 _aexport potential
690 _aInternational trade
786 0 _nEconomie & prévision | o 152-153 | 1 | 2002-03-01 | p. 115-139 | 0249-4744
856 4 1 _uhttps://shs.cairn.info/journal-economie-et-prevision-1-2002-1-page-115?lang=en
999 _c157661
_d157661