000			02520cam a2200289zu 4500
001			88833464
003			FRCYB88833464
005			20250106111928.0
006			m o d
007			cr un
008			250106s2012 fr | o|||||0|0|||eng d
020			_a9780691049212
035			_aFRCYB88833464
040			_aFR-PaCSA _ben _c _erda
100	1		_aEvans, George W.
245	0	1	_aLearning and Expectations in Macroeconomics _c['Evans, George W.', 'Honkapohja, Seppo']
264		1	_bPrinceton University Press _c2012
300			_a p.
336			_btxt _2rdacontent
337			_bc _2rdamdedia
338			_bc _2rdacarrier
650		0	_a
700	0		_aEvans, George W.
700	0		_aHonkapohja, Seppo
856	4	0	_2Cyberlibris _uhttps://international.scholarvox.com/netsen/book/88833464 _qtext/html _a
520			_aA crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
999			_c3007 _d3007