000			02785cam a2200397 4500500
005			20250121114115.0
041			_afre
042			_adc
100	1	0	_aMunier, Bertrand _eauthor
245	0	0	_aOn an important historical conjecture by Philippe Mongin: A reassessment of Maurice Allais’ contribution to the theory of decision under risk
260			_c2023.
500			_a19
520			_aWhen revisiting the sources of modern risk theory, Philippe Mongin [2019] chose to reexamine Allais’s early writings in light of the discussions held at the Paris 1952 International Conference “Fondements et Applications de la Théorie du Risque en Économétrie” (labeled “Économétrie”). He conjectured that Allais’ endeavor was in fact to establish, not only a counterexample to expected utility theory, but indeed a normative theory of decision under risk, based on a concept of rationality clearly departing from standard theory. This paper reviews the conjecture and Allais’ lines of thought in risk theory and argues that several other arguments can be found to support Mongin’s conjecture. Interestingly, these arguments not only allow to launch a bridge between Maurice Allais’ and Herbert Simon’s worlds, but they also call for a rebalancing of the credit too exclusively given to Tversky and Kahneman 1992’s celebrated article for the elaboration of modern decision theory under risk. While the extension of the model to the uncertainty case is undoubtedly to be credited to the latter authors, it appears that a series of Allais’ writings should be credited for the genesis of the modern theory under risk properly defined, for the seminal ideas, but also for the main innovations. Special mention is to be made of a “Mertonian” development independently worked out by John Quiggin and Maurice Allais himself in the 80s. JEL Codes: A12, B21, B31, C7, D81, D84.
690			_aHerbert A. Simon
690			_aAllais’ paradox
690			_aParis 1952 conference
690			_aPhilippe Mongin
690			_arisk theory
690			_arationality
690			_apositive and normative theory
690			_aMaurice Allais
690			_adecision theory
690			_aAmos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
690			_aHerbert A. Simon
690			_aAllais’ paradox
690			_aParis 1952 conference
690			_aPhilippe Mongin
690			_arisk theory
690			_arationality
690			_apositive and normative theory
690			_aMaurice Allais
690			_adecision theory
690			_aAmos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
786	0		_nRevue économique | 73 | 6 | 2023-01-11 | p. 921-941 | 0035-2764
856	4	1	_uhttps://shs.cairn.info/journal-revue-economique-2022-6-page-921?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080
999			_c546458 _d546458