000			01484cam a2200157 4500500
005			20250121212611.0
041			_afre
042			_adc
100	1	0	_aGenna, Kevin _eauthor
245	0	0	_aForecasting the Future Number of Dependents: a Multifactorial Approach with a Probit Model
260			_c2024.
500			_a31
520			_aIn recent years, France has experienced a major demographic shock as the baby-boom generation has entered old age. This ageing of the population brings with it new challenges, including the loss of autonomy. In this article, we propose a new approach for estimating the progression of dependency based on the estimation of a Probit model using Share survey data. We then use these results to project the number of dependents in France in 2030. Our results show that there will be nearly 3 million dependents in France at that time. The key feature of our approach is that it makes it possible to ascertain the future profile of dependents with a high degree of accuracy. We demonstrate that 50% of future dependents will have incomes of less than €25,000 a year, preventing them from choosing an EHPAD-type facility, whose average annual cost is estimated at €26,000, unless they are helped out. JEL classification: C35, I18, J14.
786	0		_nRevue d'économie financière | o 152 | 4 | 2024-02-09 | p. 27-36 | 0987-3368
856	4	1	_uhttps://shs.cairn.info/journal-revue-d-economie-financiere-2023-4-page-27?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080
999			_c698509 _d698509