000 01517cam a2200205 4500500
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041 _afre
042 _adc
100 1 0 _aGignoux, Jérémie
_eauthor
245 0 0 _aEx-ante and Ex-post Assessments of a Conditional Cash-Transfer Program in Mexico
260 _c2007.
500 _a29
520 _aThis article examines the quality of ex ante assessments of the effects of conditional cash-transfer programs on child time allocation in developing countries. We use data from a social experiment conducted to evaluate the Mexican program Progresa. We compare the results of (1) ex ante simulations obtained through a reduced-form model of the effects of cash transfers on children's school enrollment and labor participation with (2) ex post impact estimates. The ex ante estimation of the effects of parental income rests on an instrumental-variable strategy that uses housing characteristics and household durables as indicators of parents'permanent income. Our results show that the effects simulated ex ante are close to the ones measured ex post using the experimental framework. We discuss the potential biases of both evaluation methods.
690 _aschool enrollment
690 _aassessment
690 _asocial programs
690 _achild labor
786 0 _nEconomie & prévision | o 174 | 3 | 2007-09-01 | p. 59-85 | 0249-4744
856 4 1 _uhttps://shs.cairn.info/journal-economie-et-prevision-1-2006-3-page-59?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080
999 _c699252
_d699252