A Cyclical Turning-Point Indicator for France: Application of the Dynamic-Factor Model with Regime Switching (notice n° 699216)
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| fixed length control field | 01363cam a2200193 4500500 |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION | |
| control field | 20250121212809.0 |
| 041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE | |
| Language code of text/sound track or separate title | fre |
| 042 ## - AUTHENTICATION CODE | |
| Authentication code | dc |
| 100 10 - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME | |
| Personal name | Nguiffo-Boyom, Muriel |
| Relator term | author |
| 245 00 - TITLE STATEMENT | |
| Title | A Cyclical Turning-Point Indicator for France: Application of the Dynamic-Factor Model with Regime Switching |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. | |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. | 2006.<br/> |
| 500 ## - GENERAL NOTE | |
| General note | 8 |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. | |
| Summary, etc. | This article proposes the construction of a turning-point indicator obtained by estimating a dynamic-factor model with regime switching. The factor summarizing the sentiment of economic agents about economic activity is extracted from four balances of opinion in three business surveys conducted by the French National Statistical Institute (INSEE). The opinion displays optimistic and pessimistic phases, which are modeled with a Markov-switching model. We can also predict opinion turning points, which correspond to the model changes in the regime. We show that turning points in opinion tend to lead GDP turning points, a property that enables us to construct a cyclical turning-point indicator. |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | regime changes |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | balances of opinion |
| 690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN) | |
| Topical term or geographic name as entry element | economic cycle |
| 786 0# - DATA SOURCE ENTRY | |
| Note | Economie & prévision | o 172 | 1 | 2006-03-01 | p. 101-114 | 0249-4744 |
| 856 41 - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS | |
| Uniform Resource Identifier | <a href="https://shs.cairn.info/journal-economie-et-prevision-1-2006-1-page-101?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080">https://shs.cairn.info/journal-economie-et-prevision-1-2006-1-page-101?lang=en&redirect-ssocas=7080</a> |
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