Image de Google Jackets
Vue normale Vue MARC vue ISBD

A Cyclical Turning-Point Indicator for France: Application of the Dynamic-Factor Model with Regime Switching

Par : Type de matériel : TexteTexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2006. Sujet(s) : Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : This article proposes the construction of a turning-point indicator obtained by estimating a dynamic-factor model with regime switching. The factor summarizing the sentiment of economic agents about economic activity is extracted from four balances of opinion in three business surveys conducted by the French National Statistical Institute (INSEE). The opinion displays optimistic and pessimistic phases, which are modeled with a Markov-switching model. We can also predict opinion turning points, which correspond to the model changes in the regime. We show that turning points in opinion tend to lead GDP turning points, a property that enables us to construct a cyclical turning-point indicator.
Tags de cette bibliothèque : Pas de tags pour ce titre. Connectez-vous pour ajouter des tags.
Evaluations
    Classement moyen : 0.0 (0 votes)
Nous n'avons pas d'exemplaire de ce document

8

This article proposes the construction of a turning-point indicator obtained by estimating a dynamic-factor model with regime switching. The factor summarizing the sentiment of economic agents about economic activity is extracted from four balances of opinion in three business surveys conducted by the French National Statistical Institute (INSEE). The opinion displays optimistic and pessimistic phases, which are modeled with a Markov-switching model. We can also predict opinion turning points, which correspond to the model changes in the regime. We show that turning points in opinion tend to lead GDP turning points, a property that enables us to construct a cyclical turning-point indicator.

PLUDOC

PLUDOC est la plateforme unique et centralisée de gestion des bibliothèques physiques et numériques de Guinée administré par le CEDUST. Elle est la plus grande base de données de ressources documentaires pour les Étudiants, Enseignants chercheurs et Chercheurs de Guinée.

Adresse

627 919 101/664 919 101

25 boulevard du commerce
Kaloum, Conakry, Guinée

Réseaux sociaux

Powered by Netsen Group @ 2025