A Probabilistic Indicator of the Acceleration Cycle in the French Economy
Type de matériel :
TexteLangue : français Détails de publication : 2009.
Sujet(s) : Ressources en ligne : Abrégé : We describe a new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicator developed by the Banque de France in order to detect, on a monthly basis, the turning points in the French economy’s acceleration cycle. The indicator is based on the methodology of Markov-switching models and uses the Bank’s monthly business survey as input. A pseudo-real-time validation since1998 shows the indicator’s usefulness in short-term economic analysis. This type of indicator provides original qualitative information that complements standard quantitative tools for estimating GDP growth.
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We describe a new coincident probabilistic cyclical indicator developed by the Banque de France in order to detect, on a monthly basis, the turning points in the French economy’s acceleration cycle. The indicator is based on the methodology of Markov-switching models and uses the Bank’s monthly business survey as input. A pseudo-real-time validation since1998 shows the indicator’s usefulness in short-term economic analysis. This type of indicator provides original qualitative information that complements standard quantitative tools for estimating GDP growth.
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